# Is a Pokémon booster box worth opening?

> As of 13 October 2026, of the 15 Scarlet & Violet and Mega Evolution sets sold in booster boxes with published pull rates, none returns the price of a booster box in hits on average, and none once you look at the typical box instead of the average. The best box to open is Paldea Evolved: 35% of its price on average, ~€67 for a typical box that costs €284. The worst is Chaos Rising (27%).

- Page: https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening
- Prices: Cardmarket (trend, in euros, English booster box and cards), 13 October 2026
- Note: All prices are for the English booster box and English cards on Cardmarket.
- Method: odds per pack of each hit rarity × mean price of its cards, × 36 packs; typical box = median of 20,000 simulated boxes.

| Set | Box price (€) | Average hits (€) | Average return | Typical box (€) | Pays for itself | One hit every | Page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldea Evolved | 284 | 100 | 35% | 67 | 8% | 3.4 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/paldea-evolved |
| Phantasmal Flames | 298 | 104 | 35% | 37 | 8.6% | 2.8 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/phantasmal-flames |
| Scarlet & Violet | 207 | 68 | 33% | 58 | 0.8% | 3.4 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/scarlet-violet |
| Temporal Forces | 249 | 82 | 33% | 75 | 0.3% | 3 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/temporal-forces |
| Perfect Order | 183 | 59 | 32% | 51 | 0.7% | 2.7 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/perfect-order |
| Pitch Black | 185 | 59 | 32% | 37 | 7.9% | 2.7 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/pitch-black |
| Mega Evolution | 226 | 70 | 31% | 49 | 2.2% | 2.8 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/mega-evolution |
| Destined Rivals | 293 | 91 | 31% | 54 | 4.7% | 3.1 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/destined-rivals |
| Surging Sparks | 244 | 70 | 29% | 47 | 4.3% | 3 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/surging-sparks |
| Obsidian Flames | 236 | 67 | 28% | 57 | 0.2% | 3.4 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/obsidian-flames |
| Journey Together | 188 | 53 | 28% | 44 | 0.5% | 3 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/journey-together |
| Twilight Masquerade | 261 | 71 | 27% | 56 | 0.9% | 3 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/twilight-masquerade |
| Paradox Rift | 219 | 59 | 27% | 47 | 0.7% | 3.4 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/paradox-rift |
| Stellar Crown | 254 | 68 | 27% | 46 | 0.7% | 3 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/stellar-crown |
| Chaos Rising | 184 | 49 | 27% | 33 | 2.3% | 2.8 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/chaos-rising |
| Ascended Heroes (36 packs: no English booster box was made for this set) | 455 | 171 | 38% | 76 | 11% | 2.8 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/ascended-heroes |
| 151 (36 packs: no English booster box was made for this set) | 901 | 326 | 36% | 280 | 1.5% | 3.4 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/151 |
| Paldean Fates (36 packs: no English booster box was made for this set) | 663 | 160 | 24% | 83 | 6.6% | 1.9 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/paldean-fates |
| Prismatic Evolutions (36 packs: no English booster box was made for this set) | 449 | 105 | 23% | 39 | 2.9% | 3.5 packs | https://www.pepitacards.com/en/pokemon-booster-box-worth-opening/prismatic-evolutions |

## Verdicts

- **Paldea Evolved**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€67 for the €284 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 8% of the time.
- **Phantasmal Flames**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€37 for the €298 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 8.6% of the time.
- **Scarlet & Violet**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€58 for the €207 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 0.8% of the time.
- **Temporal Forces**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€75 for the €249 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 0.3% of the time.
- **Perfect Order**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€51 for the €183 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 0.7% of the time.
- **Pitch Black**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€37 for the €185 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 7.9% of the time.
- **Mega Evolution**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€49 for the €226 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 2.2% of the time.
- **Destined Rivals**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€54 for the €293 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 4.7% of the time.
- **Surging Sparks**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€47 for the €244 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 4.3% of the time.
- **Obsidian Flames**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€57 for the €236 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 0.2% of the time.
- **Journey Together**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€44 for the €188 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 0.5% of the time.
- **Twilight Masquerade**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€56 for the €261 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 0.9% of the time.
- **Paradox Rift**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€47 for the €219 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 0.7% of the time.
- **Stellar Crown**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€46 for the €254 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 0.7% of the time.
- **Chaos Rising**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€33 for the €184 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 2.3% of the time.
- **Ascended Heroes**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical 36 packs (bought as bundles) returns ~€76 for the €455 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 11% of the time.
- **151**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical 36 packs (bought one by one) returns ~€280 for the €901 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 1.5% of the time.
- **Paldean Fates**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical 36 packs (bought one by one) returns ~€83 for the €663 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 6.6% of the time.
- **Prismatic Evolutions**: Opening means paying for the fun: a typical 36 packs (bought one by one) returns ~€39 for the €449 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 2.9% of the time.