Our read this week ·
- Market
- Neutral
- Breadth
- 51%
- 30-day index
- +9.8%
- Highs / lows
- 496 / 471
The rally is real. It is also narrow. The top-250 index is up 13.2% since 9 September. Underneath, 496 cards hit a 5-week high and 471 hit a 5-week low. Breadth sits at 51%, a coin flip. By the rule, that is a neutral market: about a hundred cards are in a bull market, everyone else is treading water.
The real trend is a rotation. Base Set (1999) is down 20% in 30 days and the Neo era is down 5%. Meanwhile the EX era (2003–2007), the biggest in the market at €38,000 of priced cards, is up 19%, with nine sets up 30% or more: Legend Maker +79%, Crystal Guardians +75%, FireRed & LeafGreen +43%. Diamond & Pearl (2007–2008) is up 57% and Call of Legends has doubled. Our read: the 1999 trophies have priced most buyers out, so they are moving one era later, to the sets they grew up with.
The e-Card era is rising too, through its chase cards. Skyridge is up 15% and Aquapolis 10% as whole sets, and their stars are setting highs: Tyranitar (Aquapolis) at €769, Articuno (Skyridge) at €699, Kabutops (Skyridge) nearly doubling in 7 days to €321. Shining Charizard at €1,670 is a new high, but its set, Neo Destiny, is down 2% over 30 days: that is a card going up, not a set.
The chase card goes up. The bulk goes down. Black Bolt (2025) says it in one line: the whole set is up 3% over 30 days, while Zekrom ex is up 67% to €642 and Axew is down 47% to €15. Same with Charizard: the Plasma Storm print sets a high at €676 while the Team Up print drops 48% to €10. The recent eras are flat as a whole, Scarlet & Violet −5%, Mega Evolution −5%, Sword & Shield +2%. There is no market for modern bulk, only for the one card that matters.