Calculate the chance a card is in your Prize cards
With none of 4 copies in your opening hand, there is a 39.1% chance at least one is prized. Enter the copies you can see to get your exact odds. Free, instant and no account needed.
Is a key card likely to be in your Prize cards?
Example: if none of your 4 copies is in your opening hand, the calculator shows how likely they are to be among your 6 Prize cards.
Basis: a standard 60-card deck, a 7-card opening hand and 6 Prize cards, as set out in the official Pokémon TCG rulebook, checked on 13 October 2026. Calculated in your browser, no data sent.
Know what may be missing from your game plan
Prize cards are set aside face down at the start of the game. A key copy can therefore be out of reach for a while, even when your deck is well shuffled.
The result puts a number on that risk once you have looked at your opening hand. It helps you read what is missing, without pretending to know the six hidden cards.
How the result is calculated
The tool removes the 7 cards you have already seen from the 60-card deck. It also removes the copies of the target card you have seen. It then counts every way of choosing your Prize cards from the 53 remaining cards.
The formula is the hypergeometric distribution: P(at least one) = 1 − C(53 − copies left, 6) ÷ C(53, 6). For 4 copies missing from your hand and 6 Prize cards, it works out every possible case: zero, one, two, three or four hidden copies.
The calculation assumes a well-shuffled deck. It does not model an invalid hand, the extra cards your opponent may draw after a mulligan, cards drawn after the Prize cards are set aside, search effects or any format other than 60 cards.
What the result includes
- the chance of at least one copy in your Prize cards;
- the chance of none at all;
- the chance that every remaining copy is prized;
- the average number of copies and the full distribution;
- a local link to share the same calculation.
Test the rest of the game
Keep the right printing in your collection
Pepita identifies the set, number, language and finish from one photo. You find the exact card and its value in euros after the game. The app is available in English and French.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds one of my 4 copies is prized?
If none of your 4 copies is in your opening hand, there is about a 39.1% chance at least one of them is among your 6 Prize cards. With 1 copy left, the chance falls to about 11.3%.
Why does the calculation start from 53 cards?
A standard game starts with a 60-card deck and a 7-card opening hand. Once you know that hand, 53 cards remain hidden before you set aside your Prize cards.
Should I count my Active Pokémon and Bench?
Yes. They come from your opening hand. Count every copy you can see among your first 7 cards, even if you then place it as your Active Pokémon or on your Bench.
Does it work after a mulligan?
Yes, once you finally have a valid 7-card hand. Enter the copies visible in that hand. The tool does not calculate the chance of a mulligan itself.
Does the result reveal what is in my Prize cards?
No. It measures the risk before you know the cards. Only game effects and the Prize cards you take during the game can reveal what they really are.