Is a Pokémon booster box worth opening?
Cardmarket prices as of 13 October 2026, published pull rates, 20,000 simulated boxes per set.
As of 13 October 2026, of the 15 Scarlet & Violet and Mega Evolution sets sold in booster boxes with published pull rates, none returns the price of a booster box in hits on average, and none once you look at the typical box instead of the average. The best box to open is Paldea Evolved: 35% of its price on average, ~€67 for a typical box that costs €284. The worst is Chaos Rising (27%).
Every set
Click a column title to sort.| Top chase, odds per box | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldea Evolved2023 | €284 | €100 | 35% | €67 | 8% | 3.4 packs | Magikarp €331.57 · 7.4% |
| Phantasmal Flames2025 | €298 | €104 | 35% | €37 | 8.6% | 2.8 packs | Mega Charizard X ex €680.81 · 8.6% |
| Scarlet & Violet2023 | €207 | €68 | 33% | €58 | 0.8% | 3.4 packs | Drowzee €74.93 · 11% |
| Temporal Forces2024 | €249 | €82 | 33% | €75 | 0.3% | 3 packs | Gastly €72.37 · 12% |
| Perfect Order2026 | €183 | €59 | 32% | €51 | 0.7% | 2.7 packs | Mega Zygarde ex €90.34 · 2.1% |
| Pitch Black2026 | €185 | €59 | 32% | €37 | 7.9% | 2.7 packs | Mega Darkrai ex €182.08 · 7.2% |
| Mega Evolution2025 | €226 | €70 | 31% | €49 | 2.2% | 2.8 packs | Mega Lucario ex €151.79 · 1.4% |
| Destined Rivals2025 | €293 | €91 | 31% | €54 | 4.7% | 3.1 packs | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex €497.07 · 3.4% |
| Surging Sparks2024 | €244 | €70 | 29% | €47 | 4.3% | 3 packs | Pikachu ex €322.42 · 3.7% |
| Obsidian Flames2023 | €236 | €67 | 28% | €57 | 0.2% | 3.4 packs | Charizard ex €74.44 · 17% |
| Journey Together2025 | €188 | €53 | 28% | €44 | 0.5% | 3 packs | Lillie's Clefairy ex €85.73 · 6.7% |
| Twilight Masquerade2024 | €261 | €71 | 27% | €56 | 0.9% | 3 packs | Greninja ex €166.15 · 3.8% |
| Paradox Rift2023 | €219 | €59 | 27% | €47 | 0.7% | 3.4 packs | Groudon €99.00 · 7.8% |
| Stellar Crown2024 | €254 | €68 | 27% | €46 | 0.7% | 3 packs | Squirtle €86.16 · 19% |
| Chaos Rising2026 | €184 | €49 | 27% | €33 | 2.3% | 2.8 packs | Mega Greninja ex €138.18 · 7% |
| Ascended Heroes2026 | €455no box: 36 packs as bundles | €171 | 38% | €76 | 11% | 2.8 packs | Mega Gengar ex €1,002.68 · 2.3% |
| 1512023 | €901no box: 36 packs bought singly | €326 | 36% | €280 | 1.5% | 3.4 packs | Charizard ex €392.47 · 15% |
| Paldean Fates2024 | €663no box: 36 packs bought singly | €160 | 24% | €83 | 6.6% | 1.9 packs | Mew ex €614.93 · 7.5% |
| Prismatic Evolutions2025 | €449no box: 36 packs bought singly | €105 | 23% | €39 | 2.9% | 3.5 packs | Umbreon ex €1,073.36 · 2.5% |
How is this calculated?
- Pull rates
- For each hit rarity (double rare and up), the chance of pulling one per pack, from the published pack-opening study for the set. Commons, uncommons, regular rares and reverse holos do not count.
- Card price
- The card’s Cardmarket trend price in euros. When it is more than three times what the card actually sold for on average, it is one stale listing: the 30-day sold average replaces it.
- Value of a hit
- The mean price of the rarity’s cards, each card being equally likely. A median would understate the rarity whose chase card is the reason to open the set.
- Average hits
- The sum, rarity by rarity, of “odds per pack × mean value”, times 36 packs.
- Typical box
- 20,000 boxes opened at random (a reproducible draw, same seed on every update); the median: half return less, half more. It is the honest number, since the average is pulled up by cards most boxes never see.
- Pays for itself
- Share of the 20,000 simulated boxes whose hits are worth at least the box price.
- Box price
- The Cardmarket trend price of the 36-pack English booster box; cards are priced in their English version too. Without a priced box, 36 packs at the price of the cheapest format per pack.
Limits
- Returning is not cashing in: selling cards costs fees and postage, and a price is a guide, not an offer.
- Only hits count: commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos add a few cents to a few euros per box.
- The draw treats each rarity independently, pack by pack; in a real pack, two big hits together are a little rarer than that. The average does not depend on this detail.
- Special prints (Poké Ball and Master Ball patterns) are not counted.
- Pull rates come from opening samples: they are estimates, not the official print rules.
Frequently asked questions
Which Pokémon booster box is most worth opening?
At 13 October 2026 prices, the boxes returning the biggest share of their price in hits are Paldea Evolved (35%), Phantasmal Flames (35%), Scarlet & Violet (33%).
Is opening a Pokémon booster box worth it?
Not on average. As of 13 October 2026, of the 15 Scarlet & Violet and Mega Evolution sets sold in booster boxes with published pull rates, none returns the price of a booster box in hits on average, and none once you look at the typical box instead of the average. The average counts chase cards most boxes never see: look at the typical box and the chance it pays for itself in the table instead.
Booster box, ETB or bundle: which is cheapest per pack?
It depends on the set. Number of sets where each format is the cheapest per pack — Single pack: 11; Booster box (36 packs): 6; Elite Trainer Box (9 packs): 1; Booster bundle (6 packs): 1. Each set page compares the price per pack.
Where do the pull rates come from?
From published pack-opening studies (TCGplayer), one per set, linked and dated on each set page. A set without a published study is not in the table.