Is a Chaos Rising booster box worth opening?

Cardmarket prices as of 13 October 2026 · TCGplayer pull rates · 20,000 simulated boxes

Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€33 for the €184 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 2.3% of the time.

As of 13 October 2026, a Chaos Rising booster box costs €184.27 on Cardmarket. The hits inside (double rare and up) are worth €49.10 on average, 27% of the price. That average is pulled up by the chase cards: the typical box returns €33, and only 2.3% of boxes pay for themselves. One pack in 2.8 holds at least one hit. The top chase, Mega Greninja ex 116/86 (€138.18), turns up in 7% of boxes.

Box price
€184
English box, Cardmarket price
Average hits
€49
double rare and up
Average return
27%
of the price, on average
Typical box
€33
10% return under €17, 10% over €134
Pays for itself
2.3%
of simulated boxes
One hit every
2.8 packs
14.6 hits per box on average

The 3 cards people open it for

  1. Mega Greninja ex 116/86

    1 Mega Greninja ex

    Special illustration rare · €138.18

    in 7% of boxes

  2. Mega Greninja ex 122/86

    2 Mega Greninja ex

    Mega Hyper Rare · €122.33

    in 3.5% of boxes

  3. Cinccino ex 119/86

    3 Cinccino ex

    Special illustration rare · €35.79

    in 7% of boxes

Cheapest way to open it

Cardmarket (€)
FormatPer packPrice
Single packcheapest€4.91€4.91
Booster box (36 packs)€5.12€184.27
Booster bundle (6 packs)€6.13€36.79
Elite Trainer Box (9 packs)€6.99€62.88

Rarity by rarity

36 packs per box
RarityOne pack inCardsMean priceMedian pricePer pack
Double rare510€0.51€0.46€0.10
Ultra Rare1218€2.75€2.46€0.23
Illustration rare911€3.58€3.31€0.38
Special illustration rare836€43.67€27.28€0.53
Mega Hyper Rare9561€122.33€122.33€0.12
Total per pack€1.36

Where the numbers come from

Pull rates: TCGplayer study (more than 8,500 booster packs), published 4 June 2026, read on 14 October 2026. Card and product prices: Cardmarket trend as of 13 October 2026.

Read the study (TCGplayer) ↗

Full method and its limits →

Frequently asked questions

Is a Chaos Rising booster box worth opening?

Opening means paying for the fun: a typical box returns ~€33 for the €184 you pay. It pays for itself in cards 2.3% of the time. On average its hits are worth €49.10, 27% of its price (Cardmarket prices as of 13 October 2026).

What are the odds of pulling Chaos Rising’s top chase card in a box?

Mega Greninja ex 116/86, priced at €138.18, turns up about once every 495.9 packs, so in 7% of 36-pack boxes.

Chaos Rising booster box or ETB: which should you buy to open?

Cheapest per pack today: Single pack, at €4.91 per pack (€4.91 on Cardmarket). The packs are the same; an ETB adds accessories, a box only packs.

How many hits are in a Chaos Rising booster box?

14.6 on average across 36 packs (double rare and up): one pack in 2.8 holds at least one, per the TCGplayer study.